Liew Chin Tong’s public lecture on whether Pakatan Rakyat can win at the next general election points PR’s fortunes towards two key factors:

(i) How well PR does in marginal seats throughout Malaysia; and

(ii) How well PR does in Sabah and Sarawak.

This is of course not taking into account how the BN will tamper further the electoral process – which in its present form, is already stacked against the opposition (read here, here and here) and if I may say, that the BN administration does not suddenly make a U-Turn and become a corrupt free and efficient administrator of the nation.

Chin Tong’s public lecture builds on earlier analysis done by PR’s strategists (of which Chin Tong is one of them), and the independent pollster Merdeka Centre. The following links provide an analysis of the marginal seats in Malaysia and Pakatan Rakyat’s chances at the 13GE:

(1) Swinging Pakatan Rakyat into Putrajaya (read here)

“… Bukit Bendera’s Liew Chin Tong said a 10 percent swing in votes to Pakatan would take its current tally of 82 parliamentary seats to more than 130, giving it a simple majority at federal level.

Conversely, a similar swing to Barisan Nasional would increase its seats from 137 now to 180 – giving it back a two-thirds majority in the process.”

Chin Tong’s analysis is supported by Merdeka Centre’s own analysis. They noted that 61 seats will decide the next election (read here and here).

“… In the 12th GE, BN obtained 51% of the votes with 140 seats – a drop of 13 percent from 2004 – and Pakatan Rakyat took 48% or 83 seats (As at 20 June 2010, BN has 138 seats, PR has 77 seats while there are seven independent seats with five openly declaring support for BN. Read here).

To form the federal government in the 13th GE, Pakatan would need a swing of 6% (29 seats) to declare victory with a simple majority.

To rule comfortably, it requires a 10% swing (139 seats), and to obtain a two-thirds majority, it needs a 13% swing (148 seats).”

In East Malaysia, PR will need a 20% swing to win the state of Sarawak (Read here). There are no publicly available analysis for Sabah.

Increasing urbanisation (now at 65%) and Malaysia’s demographic structure (between 20-35% of voters will be below 35 at the next GE in addition to the unregistered 4 million voters – many believed to be young) also favours PR (read here and here).

Chin Tong however recognised that PR has much work to do as many of its Members of Parliament and state assemblymen benefited from protest votes at the 2008 GE. This time around PR will have to demonstrate that it is indeed a reliable government in waiting.

Listen (or read the transcript) to an ABC Radio Australia interview with Chin Tong here.

Read also How Pakatan Rakyat can beat Barisan Nasional here

by Greg Lopez

New Mandala New perspectives on mainland Southeast Asia

Over two years since Malaysia’s Opposition made historic gains in the March 2008 elections, the political momentum seemed to have fallen away dramatically.

Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim is struggling to stay out of jail, and even the Opposition coalition, the Pakatan Rakyat, is not as united as it once was. Liew Chin Tong is the Democratic Action Party’s member for Bukit Bendera in the Malaysian state of Penang. He was credited with Pakatan Rakyat’s takeover of Penang state from the ruling B-N coalition.

Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Liew Chin Tong, Malaysian member of parliament and Opposition strategist

• Listen: Windows Media

Read the rest of this entry »

The Prime Minister’s Department’s allocation for 2010 is a whopping RM12 billion, not RM4 billion as some people may have perceived it to be. That’s a lot of money for one single department.

In a parliamentary reply by Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz to Taiping MP, Nga Kor Ming, it was revealed that RM3.9 billion was allocated to the PMD for its “operations” in 2010. The minister was telling the truth; PMD’s “operating budget” was indeed the said amount.

But he seemed to be withholding another piece of information already in the public domain. Under a separate category of “development”, the PMD received RM 8.238 billion. Thus, the total budgetary outlay for the PMD in 2010 is RM12.1 billion, as revealed by the Federal Budget Estimates.

The PMD’s budget wasn’t so huge not too long ago. In the entire Eighth Malaysia Plan period (2001-2005), the development budget of the PMD was RM7.2 billion, or 4.3 per cent of the Plan’s total allocations. This means the development allocation for 2010 alone (RM 8.2 billion) surpassed the sum allocated for the first five years of the 21st century.

The PMD, which was already relatively strong and powerful compared to other Commonwealth countries, has grown beyond recognition, especially over the course of the last decade.

Its development budget underwent a four-fold increase in the 9th Malaysia Plan , driving its allocation up to RM 29.6 billion, or 13.5 per cent of the Plan’s total.

The huge increases in the PMD’s budget in 2009 and 2010 have never been seen before. The combined operating and development expenditure for 2009 was RM14 billion; nearly double the RM7.1 billion allocated for 2008. The total for 2005 was a mere RM4.1 billion in comparison.

A different way of looking at it is that the development budget for 2009 (RM10 billion) was five times that of 2005 (RM2 billion) while in 2010 (RM8.2 billion), is four times that of the base year.

What does this mean?

The development allocation for PMD is discretional expenditure that allows the prime minister to approve it literally at the stroke of a pen, whereas other ministerial expenditures or treasury payments must pass through more rigorous checks.

The “big push” in the increase of the development budget occurred in the Ninth Malaysia Plan and in 2009. In both instances, the increase occurred during the time when former prime minister Tun Abdullah Badawi’s position was threatened by internal revolts in Umno and other political challenges.

The big push of Budget 2009 was presented to Parliament in August 2008, amidst talk of defection of Barisan Nasional MPs, especially those from Sabah and Sarawak. Immediately, RM1 billion of the RM6.9 billion increase was allocated to Sabah and Sarawak. The other RM5 billion was for the development of the five corridors, which included Sabah Development Corridor and Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy (Score).

Perhaps it can be said that such a big push managed to fend off the Sept 16 challenge, allegedly when those BN MPs were supposed to join the Pakatan Rakyat.

Besides the surge of monetary allocations, the staff size of the PMD and the speed of its growth (or over-growth) are completely mind-boggling. In 1981, when Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad assumed power, there were 4,414 staff in the PMD. In 2001, there were 9,673; 21,045 in 2003. In 2009, the PMD hired 25,332.

In the same reply, Nazri told Parliament that the PMD has employed 43,544 people in 2010.

According to Nazri, the increase in operating allocations and staff were due to the “creation of new agencies” within the department as well as the addition of posts in a few existing agencies.

The powers concentrated in the Prime Minister’s Department in Malaysia certainly have other Commonwealth prime ministers’ envy. Besides the personal offices of the prime minister and his deputy, there are five full ministers, five deputy ministers, a number of ministerial-ranked advisors (which I am still unable to confirm), and 45 agencies under the watch of the Prime Minister’s Department.

Some of these agencies, such as the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Agency, Auditor-General’s Office, Election Commission, Human Rights Commission, Public Complaints Bureau, and Public Service Commission should have been placed under parliamentary oversight.

The Parliament should govern its own affairs, independent from the PMD; likewise for the judiciary and national palace.

It is disturbing that the Prime Minister’s Department is like a messy bazaar with all sorts of agencies under its watch that do not make any practical or coherent sense.

For instance, the dissolution of entrepreneur development ministry did not return the governance of public transport to the transport ministry but instead a new land public transport commission was formed within the PMD. One can only suspect that the licensing power of public transport is too great to let go.

The other agency that is gathering huge staff strength is the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency, which is our version of the coast guard. Why should it be housed under the PMD? The right thing to do is to place it under either defence or home ministry, and at the same time merge Marine Police with MMEA. At it is, Malaysia has the navy, MMEA, Marine Police, Fisheries Department and a whole hosts of agencies guarding our waters, yet our borders don’t seem to be less porous.

Something is very wrong with Malaysia’s public finance and governance, especially in these last few years. And the people have to bear the brunt of the current subsidy cuts, allegedly to help the government saves RM750 million this year.

Malaysian Insider
masterwordsmith-unplugged

LIEW CHIN TONG, MP
SCHOOL OF CULTURE, HISTORY & LANGUAGE, & SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL, POLITICAL & STRATEGIC STUDIES, ANU.

“Malaysian Politics: Can the Opposition Win Power?”
Venue: Coombs Lecture Theatre
Time: 4.30-6.00pm
Date: Thursday, 22 July 2010 Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is a potential voter, says the DAP, including visitors thronging the streets of George Town, the capital of Penang, to celebrate the city’s second year as a Unesco World Heritage Site.

Those who combed the heritage city yesterday were not spared the party’s campaign to garner more votes for the coming general election, highly speculated to be held next year.

Several party members wearing red T-shirts armed with registration forms stood around a table, set up amidst stalls selling and exhibiting arts and crafts, at the intersection of Jalan Masjid Kapitan Keling and Armenian Street.

A huge yellow banner stood erect beside the table and no one could miss its glaring message, ‘New voter registration’ in English, Malay, Chinese and Tamil.

Martin Lim Huat Poh, special assistant to Bukit Bendera MP Liew Chin Tong, said the party had signed up about 100 new voters in the span of a few hours yesterday.

“We are encouraged by the good response. We will continue our campaign in other events such as the coming Bon Odori festival on July 17,” he said.

Martin, who is in charge of community outreach programmes, said the party’s various teams have been setting up counters in shopping malls and night markets all over the state during weekends. Read the rest of this entry »

Bukit Bendera MP Liew Chin Tong has slammed the government for spending too much money on two “white elephant” projects in Putrajaya.

“(Astaka Morocco and Monumen Alaf Baru) serve no function and were built to serve the fantasies of (former prime minister) Dr Mahathir (Mohamad),” he told reporters in the Parliament lobby.

“The figures … show that about 20 people visit the Astaka Morocco daily, which is far too little when one considers the amount spent on it.”

Replying to Liew in the House earlier, Deputy Federal Territories Minister M Saravanan said the Astaka Morocco had cost RM20 million to build and RM250,000 per year to maintain. Read the rest of this entry »

The government has no plan to dissolve the General Operations Force (GOF), the Dewan Rakyat was told Monday.

Deputy Home Minister Datuk Wira Abu Seman Yusop said the force was still relevant in maintaining security and public order.

“As a component of the Royal Malaysia Police, the GOF is still relevant and they can be deployed in any police department, division or unit,” he said in reply to Liew Chin Tong (DAP-Bukit Bendera).

Liew wanted to know whether the government had any plan to dissolve the force and absorb its personnel into other police unit to fight crime.

Abu Seman said the GOF, previously known as the Police Field Force, now had a strength of 12,746 officers and personnel.

He said at the moment, GOF personnel were tasked with combating smuggling activities, thwarting the entry of illegal immigrants, battling sea robberies and maintaining security at Customs, Immigration and Quarantine complexes at the Malaysia-Thailand and Malaysia-Indonesia borders.

“They are also involved in providing security to VIPs, securing strategic areas such as international airports and providing relief in times of disaster.

“The GOF also involves in crime-prevention in hot spot areas under the National Key Result Area,” he said, adding that GOF personnel were fully trained in crime-prevention duties.

– BERNAMA

Penang Chief Minister YAB Lim Guan Eng will be visiting Singapore on 29th June – till 1st July 2010 to attend the World Cities Summit 2010 on the invitation of Minister of National Development Mr. Mah Bow Tan. The Singapore government has invited the Chief Minister to attend this Summit which will bring together practitioners and policy makers with leading experts in their field to identify innovative solutions to the most pressing challenges facing cities today.

This summit will offer leaders, mayors, policy makers and the civil society a strategic platform to attend a high-level summit, plenary sessions, networking forums and technical workshop. The theme for the second Summit is “Liveable and Sustainable Cities for the Future” focusing on leadership and governance and building liveable and sustainable communities.

As the most livable city in Malaysia on par with Kuala Lumpur ranked by ECA International, this summit will help to acquire knowledge and skill-sets required to allow Penang to evolve and sustain this critical competitive edge. Penang has also been ranked 8th most livable city in Asia and 64th globally. The Chief Minister will be also be one of the 8 panel speakers in the Ministerial Dialogue “Leading the Change: Building Liveable and Vibrant Cities”. This dialogue gathers past and present practitioners of governance, urban theorists and planners from around the world to discuss the need to build sustainable cities through leadership in the government and urban planning.

Besides that, the delegation will be giving a media briefing on 30th June 2010 about the various projects in Penang available for open tenders such as Fort Cornwallis, Gold Bazaar, Bayan Mutiara and Craig Hotel. The briefing will be conducted at SunTech Convention Center, Singapore and has been listed as one of the media events by the World Cities Summit 2010.

The Chief Minister will be accompanied by Y.B. Liew Chin Tong , MP for Bukit Bendera; Puan Zailena Noordin, General Manager of PDC (Penang Development Corporation) Properties and Wong Kim Fei, Special Assistant to the Chief Minister (Press).

Georgetown Festival 2010

A month-long inaugural GEORGE TOWN FESTIVAL, in conjunction with the 2nd anniversary of George Town as a UNESCO World Heritage Site on July 7th, encompassing over 80 exciting programs in theatre, music, dance, film, art, opera, food, fashion, photography, inspirational talks and more!

For more details, call 016 – 4644211 or email info@georgetownfestival.com

Visit us at www.georgetownfestival.com